黄河流域高质量发展时空动态演变及溢出效应——基于9省域61个地市的数据分析

摘要：

基于五大发展理念,采用熵权TOPSIS法测算2010-2019年黄河流域9省域61个地市高质量发展水平,运用Dagum基尼系数揭示地区差异及来源,将空间马尔科夫链与空间杜宾模型相结合,探讨地市高质量发展的空间动态演化过程、俱乐部趋同特征及空间溢出效应.研究发现:(1)黄河流域各地市高质量发展随着时间演变呈上升趋势,但上游和中游高质量发展水平需进一步提高;在空间分布上呈现“下游高于上中游、省会城市高于周边城市”的特征;造成地区差异的来源中,区域间差异的贡献最大且正在扩大.(2)空间马尔科夫链分析佐证了各地市高质量发展空间溢出效应的存在,邻域环境等级的提高对低水平俱乐部拉动不明显,对中低水平俱乐部具有促进作用.考虑空间因素后,黄河流域各地市高质量发展依然具有稳定的俱乐部趋同特征、马太效应、阶段性特征.(3)黄河流域各地市高质量发展空间溢出效应显著.城镇化水平是重要驱动力,政府干预具有关键作用,创新是核心要素,会通过“示范效应”带来的空间溢出促进邻近城市高质量发展.基于实证结果,提出加强区域战略合作、充分发挥省会城市的辐射带动作用、优化城市空间溢出效应的发展建议.

Based on the Five Concepts for Development,the entropy TOPSIS method was used to calculate the high-quality development level of 61 cities in 9 provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019.Dagum Gini coefficient is used to reveal regional differences and their sources.Combining spatial Markov chain and spatial Dubin model,this paper discusses the spatial dynamic evolution process,club convergence characteristics and spatial spillover effect of urban high-quality development.The results show that:(1)The high-quality development of cities in the Yellow River Basin increases with time,but the high-quality development of the upper and middle reaches needs to be further improved;In terms of spatial distribution,it is higher in the lower reaches than in the upper and middle reaches,and higher in provincial capitals than in surrounding cities.Among the sources of regional differences,the contribution of regional differences is the biggest and is expanding.(2)The spatial Markov chain analysis proves the existence of the spillover effect of high-quality development space in each city,and the improvement of neighborhood environment level does not pull the low-level clubs significantly,but has a promotion effect on the middle and low level clubs.Considering the spatial factors,the high-quality development of cities in the Yellow River Basin still has stable club convergence,Matthew effect and stage characteristics.(3)The spatial spillover effect of high-quality development in cities in the Yellow River Basin is significant.The level of urbanization is an important driving force,government intervention plays a key role,and innovation is the core element.It will promote the high-quality development of adjacent cities through the spatial spillover brought by thedemonstration effect.Based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward some development suggestions to strengthen regional strategic cooperation,give full play to the radiation driving role of provincial capital cities,and optimize the urban spatial spillover effect.

作者：

杨玉珍 闫佳笑

Yang Yuzhen;Yan Jiaxiao(School of Business,Henan Normal University,Xinxiang 453007,China)

机构地区：

betway官方app 商学院

出处：

《betway官方app 学报：自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第1期23-35,共13页

Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基金：

国家社科基金重大项目(21ZDA066) 河南省重大科技专项(201300311700) 河南省高校哲学社会科学创新团队(2021-CXTD-04).

关键词：

黄河流域 高质量发展 空间马尔科夫链 空间杜宾模型

Yellow River Basin high-quality development space Markov chain spatial Durbin model

分类号：

F061.3 [经济管理—政治经济学]

黄河流域高质量发展时空动态演变及溢出效应——基于9省域61个地市的数据分析.pdf