基于多元时间序列的哈尔滨市PM2.5影响因素分析

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摘要：

为探究哈尔滨市PM2.5与其他空气污染物和气象因子间的动态关系,基于哈尔滨市2013-2018年日值空气质量数据和气象观测数据建立PM2.5质量浓度的多元时间序列模型.利用相关性较强且平稳的空气污染物(包括SO2,NO2,PM10,CO和O3)和气象因子(平均气温、极大风速、累计降水量、日照时数和平均气压)建立PM2.5的向量自回归(Vector Autoregressive,VAR)模型,选择最优模型为VAR(2),并通过广义脉冲响应和方差分解分析这些因素对PM2.5的影响.研究表明:SO2,NO2,PM10,CO对PM2.5起促进作用;O3,平均气温、极大风速和降水在不同时期对PM2.5发挥不同的作用,在短期内平均气温和O3质量浓度对PM2.5起促进作用,这与它们之间的光化学作用有关,极大风速和降水在短期会对PM2.5起抑制作用,但随后极大风速会对PM2.5起促进作用,这与其会引起地面扬尘有关;长期来看,平均气温和日照时数会对PM2.5起促进作用,这些结果与哈尔滨市的季节变化特征有关.在对哈尔滨市PM2.5治理时应综合应用多种措施,调整产业结构,发展可替代能源.

Air pollution have seriously endangered public health.To explore the relationship among PM2.5,the other air pollutants and meteorological factors in Harbin,this paper implemented a vector autoregressive(VAR)model of PM2.5using daily air quality data(SO2,NO2,PM10,CO and O3)and meteorological data(average air temperature(TA),extreme wind speed(EWS),cumulative precipitation(H),sunshine duration(SH)and average pressure(P))of Harbin from 2013 tO2018.A generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the optimal model VAR(2)were implemented to analyze the effects of above factors on PM2.5.Results showed that CO,NO2,SO2and PM10would promote the concentration of PM2.5.O3,TA,EWS and H had different effects on PM2.5in different periods.In the short term,TA and O3would promote the concentration of PM2.5due to the photochemical action;EWS and H would reduce the concentration of PM2.5in the short term,however,EWS would promote the concentration of PM2.5,which was related to the ground dust caused by the increase of EWS.In the long term,the increase of TA and SH tended to increase PM2.5concentration,which was related to the seasonal variation characteristics of Harbin.When controlling PM2.5in Harbin,a variety of measures should be taken into account comprehensively,such as adjusting industrial structure and developing alternatives energy.

作者：

甄贞刘佳宇牛亚洲冯新悦魏庆彬

Zhen Zhen;Liu Jiayu;Niu Yazhou;Feng Xinyue;Wei Qingbin(School of Forestry,Ministry of Education,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;Key Laboratory of Forest Plant Ecology,Ministry of Education,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Harbin Normal University,Harbin 150025,China)

机构地区：

东北林业大学林学院东北林业大学森林植物生态学教育部重点实验室哈尔滨师范大学地理科学学院

出处：

《betway官方app 学报：自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第1期98-107,共10页

Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基金：

东北林业大学森林植物生态学教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(K2020C02) 东北林业大学大学生创新训练项目(DC2020019).

关键词：

PM2.5 时间序列 VAR 广义脉冲响应函数方差分解

PM2.5 time series VAR generalized impulse response function variance decomposition

分类号：

X823 [环境科学与工程—环境工程]