黄河上游流域径流变化特征与归因分析研究
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摘要:
基于黄河上游头道拐水文站1982-2015年的月尺度径流量数据,采用累积距平值方法识别径流突变年份,继而分析研究区生态水文气象要素的年内变化规律,然后采用多元线性回归方法,评估了气候变化和人类活动对黄河上游植被变化的贡献率.最后,运用Budyko假设方法计算了人类活动引起的植被变化和气候因子(包括降水、蒸发和气候变化引起的植被变化)对黄河上游径流变化的贡献率.结果表明:(1)头道拐水文站的年径流量存在着明显减小的趋势,并且年内分配更加均匀;(2)归一化植被指数、年平均降雨量和年平均参考蒸散发量均呈现逐渐增长的趋势;(3)人为因素在黄河上游植被覆盖率增长方面发挥了主要作用,贡献率为75.02%;(4)气候因子(包括降水、蒸发和气候变化引起的植被变化)和人类活动引起的植被变化对头道拐水文站径流变化的贡献率分别为36.81%和63.19%.
Based on the monthly runoff data of Toudaoguai hydrological station from 1982 to 2015,the cumulative anomaly method was used to identify the mutation year of runoff,and the intra-annual variation law of ecological hydro-meteorological elements in the upper reaches of Yellow River was analyzed.Next,the contribution rates of climate factors and human activities to the vegetation change in the upper reaches of Yellow River were calculated with a multiple linear regression method.Finally,the Budyko hypothesis was applied to calculate the contribution rates of climatic factors(including precipitation,potential evaporation,and subsequent vegetation changes)and vegetation changes caused by human activities on the runoff in the Tangnaihai hydrometric station.The results showed that:(1)The annual runoff of Toudaoguai hydrological station has an obvious decreasing trend,and its intra-annual distribution is more uniform;(2)Precipitation,potential evaporation and NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)all showed an increasing trend;(3)Human factors played a major role in the growth of vegetation coverage in the upper reaches of the Yellow River,with a contribution rate of 75.02%;(4)The contribution rates of climatic factors(including precipitation,potential evaporation,and subsequent vegetation changes)and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station are 36.81% and 63.19% respectively.
作者:
姬广兴 高慧珊 黄珺嫦 杨旭 张亚丽
Ji Guangxing;Gao Huishan;Huang Junchang;Yang Xu;Zhang Yali(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Institute of Geographical Sciences,Henan Academy of Sciences,Zhengzhou 450052,China)
机构地区:
河南农业大学资源与环境学院 河南省科学院地理科学研究所
出处:
《betway官方app 学报：自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2023年第1期12-19,共8页
Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金:
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900) 国家自然科学基金青年项目(42001220) 2022年河南省高等学校智库研究项目(2022ZKYJ07) 河南省青年骨干教师计划项目(2019GGJS048) 河南科技智库调研课题(HNKJZK-2022-04C) 河南农业大学拔尖人才项目(30501031).
关键词:
气候变化 植被变化 径流变化 人类活动 黄河上游
climate change vegetation change runoff variation human activities the upper reaches of Yellow River
分类号：
P333 [天文地球—水文科学] TV121 [水利工程—水文学及水资源]
