环境事件网络舆情演化博弈模型构建及分析

摘要：

突发环境事件网络舆情的有效管控对建立政府公信力和营造网络法治化环境意义重大.基于演化博弈理论和系统动力理论,分析了无政府管控下环境事件网络舆情参与主体策略选择的演化规律,构建了一个政府管控下网媒、网民和政府的三方网络博弈场,并建立系统动力学模型.以“3·21响水爆炸事件”为例进行仿真分析发现:环境事件网络舆情的扩散主要受政府奖惩力度和动态惩罚机制的影响,政府可通过建立网络舆情监测预警机制、构建科学的动态奖惩治理机制和规范网民诉求表达方式以实现对环境事件网络舆情的有效管控.

The effective management of network public opinion on emergency environmental events is of great significance in establishing government credibility and promoting a rule-of-law environment in cyberspace.Based on the theories of evolutionary game and system dynamics,this study analyzes the evolutionary patterns of strategic choices among the participants in environmental event network public opinion under the absence of government control.A three-party network online game field involving online media,netizens,and the government and the system dynamic model are constructed.With the3·21 Xiangshui Explosionincident as example,through simulation analysis,it is found that the diffusion of environmental event network public opinion is mainly influenced by the government's efforts in rewards and punishments and the dynamic punishment mechanism.To effectively manage network public opinion on environmental events,the government can establish an early warning mechanism of network public opinion monitoring,by developing a scientific dynamic rewards and punishments governance mechanism to regulate the way netizens express their demands.F

作者：

邹琳

Zou Lin(Editorial Department of Journal,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：

郑州轻工业大学学报编辑部

引用本文：

《betway官方app 学报（自然科学版）》 CAS 北大核心  2024年第3期62-70,共9页

Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基金：

国家社科基金(22BJY051) 河南省软科学研究计划项目(242400410522).

关键词：

环境事件 网络舆情 演化博弈 系统动力学

environmental events network public opinion evolutionary game system dynamics

分类号：

G206.2 [文化科学—传播学]  F224 [经济管理—国民经济] 

环境事件网络舆情演化博弈模型构建及分析 .pdf