Prediction of groundwater depression cone based on EMD-AR model in the irrigation area of the lower Yellow River

摘要：
社会经济和农业的不断发展使得人们对地下水需求程度变得愈来愈强,导致开采区出现严重的地下水漏斗,影响当地社会、经济与环境的高质量发展.为探明黄河下游灌区地下水漏斗演变特征,基于人民胜利渠灌区24个观测井64年的实测数据,通过ArcGIS空间插值对整个灌区地下水漏斗的形成、演变特征及年际变化趋势进行分析.采用基于经验模态分解(Empirical Mode Decomposition,EMD)的自回归(Autoregression,AR)模型和普通最小二乘(Ordinary Least Squares,OLS)线性回归模型分别对2022-2030年夏庄漏斗的中心水位和面积进行预测.结果表明,整个灌区地下水漏斗中心最先出现在董庄,逐渐过渡形成以夏庄为中心的地下水漏斗,漏斗中心水位在不断下降,面积不断增加.2022-2030年夏庄漏斗中心水位下降约1.5 m,面积增加约8.5 km2.以2025年为分界点,2025年前后漏斗中心水位和面积变化速度不同.2022-2025年漏斗中心水位下降速度约为0.08 m/a,漏斗面积增加速度约为1.4 km2/a,2025-2030年漏斗中心水位下降速度约为0.25 m/a,漏斗面积增加速度约为0.85 km2/a.该研究结果有助于对黄河下游地下水漏斗演变的深层次理解,可为漏斗的治理修复及区域高质量发展提供理论支撑.

The continuous development of social economy and agriculture has made people's demand for groundwater stronger,resulting in serious groundwater depression cone in mining areas,affecting the high-quality development of local society,economy and environment.In order to explore the evolution characteristics of the groundwater depression cone in the irrigation area of the lower Yellow River,based on the 64-year measured data of 24 observation wells in the irrigation area of the People's Shengli Canal,the formation,evolution characteristics and inter-annual change trend of the groundwater depression cone in the irrigation area were analyzed through ArcGIS spatial interpolation.The Autoregressive(AR)model and the least square linear(OLS)regression model based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD)were used to predict the central water level and area of the Xiazhuang depression cone from 2022 to 2030,respectively.The results showed that the center of the groundwater depression cone in the entire irrigation area appeared in Dongzhuang,then transitioned,and finally formed a groundwater depression cone centered on Xiazhuang.The water level at the center of the depression cone is declining and the area is increasing.From 2022 to 2030,the central water level of the Xiazhuang depression cone will drop by about 1.5 m and the area increased by about 8.5 km2.From 2022-2025,the central water level decline rate is about 0.08 m/a,and the area increase rate is about 1.4 km2/a;the central water level decline rate from 2025 to 2030 is about 0.25 m/a,and the area increase rate is about 0.85 km2/a.The research results can help people have a further understanding of the evolution of the depression cone in the lower Yellow River and provide a theoretical basis for the governance and repair of the depression cone and regional high-quality development.

作者：
刘中培 齐明坤 韩宇平 曹润祥 冷静

Liu Zhongpei;Qi Mingkun;Han Yuping;Cao Runxiang;Leng Jing(College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Henan Key Laboratory of Water Resources Conservation and Intensive Utilization in the Yellow River Basin,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：
华北水利水电大学水资源学院 华北水利水电大学河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约利用重点实验室

出处：
《betway官方app 学报：自然科学版》 CAS 北大核心 2022年第3期29-38,共10页

Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基金：
国家自然科学基金(42072287)。

关键词：
黄河下游 人民胜利渠灌区 地下水漏斗演变 模型预测 趋势分析

the lower Yellow River the People's Shengli Canal irrigation area evolution of groundwater depression cone model prediction trend analysis

分类号：
P641.2 [天文地球—地质矿产勘探]

基于EMD-AR模型的黄河下游灌区地下水漏斗演变预测.pdf